Why Clinicians Are Natural Bayesians

A short BMJ editorial that argues doctors are already doing Bayesian reasoning — just informally, through pattern recognition and base rates — and would benefit from doing it explicitly. The piece is a clear, short introduction to Bayes for practitioners who need to update beliefs in the face of noisy evidence. For product direction it transfers almost directly: every meaningful product metric is noisy, every interpretation is an update on prior beliefs, and pretending otherwise is what Gill calls "the pre-Bayesian mode" of reasoning. A four-page paper; worth reading twice a year.