Probability
An annotated collection of 5 books & papers on probability, spanning 1950 to 2018. Featuring works by Paul R. Halmos, Christopher J. Gill, Nassim Nicholas Taleb and 2 more — each with editorial commentary oriented to digital product practice.
Measure Theory
A graduate-level textbook that most product directors will never read cover to cover and should still know exists. Measure theory is the mathematical foundation under probability, statistics and any rigorous claim you ma…
Why Clinicians Are Natural Bayesians
A short BMJ editorial that argues doctors are already doing Bayesian reasoning — just informally, through pattern recognition and base rates — and would benefit from doing it explicitly. The piece is a clear, short intro…
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Taleb's argument that the events that shape history, markets and careers are not the ones we predict but the ones we cannot — rare, extreme-impact, retrospectively explainable events he calls Black Swans. The book disman…
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't
Silver surveys forecasting across domains — baseball, weather, politics, earthquakes, economics, chess — and catalogues the systematic ways predictions fail. The book's strongest chapter, on Bayesian reasoning, is a cras…
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Duke, a former professional poker player turned decision-science teacher, argues that the quality of a decision and the quality of its outcome are different things, and that treating them as the same is the single most e…