Forecasting
An annotated collection of 3 books & articles on forecasting, spanning 2007 to 2014. Featuring works by Paul Saffo, Nate Silver, David Haig — each with editorial commentary oriented to digital product practice.
Six Rules for Effective Forecasting
Saffo, a long-time futurist at the Institute for the Future, reduces forecasting to six rules that most planners violate: define a cone of uncertainty rather than a single prediction, look for the S-curve, embrace the th…
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't
Silver surveys forecasting across domains — baseball, weather, politics, earthquakes, economics, chess — and catalogues the systematic ways predictions fail. The book's strongest chapter, on Bayesian reasoning, is a cras…
Pressure
David Haig's play dramatises the 1944 confrontation between Scottish meteorologist James Stagg and General Eisenhower over whether weather conditions would permit the D-Day landings — a decision where imperfect data, ins…