Library · Tag
Forecasting
An annotated collection of 2 books & articles on forecasting, spanning 2007 to 2012. Featuring works by Paul Saffo, Nate Silver — each with editorial commentary oriented to digital product practice.
Six Rules for Effective Forecasting
Paul Saffo, 2007 · Harvard Business Review, July–August 2007
Saffo, a long-time futurist at the Institute for the Future, reduces forecasting to six rules that most planners violate: define a cone of uncertainty rather than a single prediction, look for the S-curve, embrace the th…
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don't
Nate Silver, 2012 · Penguin Press
Silver surveys forecasting across domains — baseball, weather, politics, earthquakes, economics, chess — and catalogues the systematic ways predictions fail. The book's strongest chapter, on Bayesian reasoning, is a cras…