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Weak Signals

An annotated collection of 1 articles on weak signals, spanning 2007. Featuring works by Paul Saffo — each with editorial commentary oriented to digital product practice.

Six Rules for Effective Forecasting

Paul Saffo, 2007 · Harvard Business Review, July–August 2007

Saffo, a long-time futurist at the Institute for the Future, reduces forecasting to six rules that most planners violate: define a cone of uncertainty rather than a single prediction, look for the S-curve, embrace the th…