The Rise of Industrial AI in America: Microfoundations of the Productivity J-curve(s)

Firm-level empirical evidence for the productivity J-curve associated with AI adoption. Companies that adopt AI initially see no productivity gains — they can even get worse — because they need complementary investments in reorganisation, training and process redesign. The benefits come later, and they are substantial. It empirically confirms Brynjolfsson's thesis of the productivity paradox applied specifically to AI. A useful reality check for any executive who expects a clean quarter-over-quarter line from an AI rollout.